My week 11 CFB predictions went 4-1-1 with my push being Oregon State +4 over Stanford and my loss being M-State +14.5 over the LSU Tigers. One of my wins was Texas A&M, but I have to admit I didn’t think they would win the game SU. Alabama now has to hope that two of the following three teams lose at least one game in the final couple weeks (K-State, Oregon & ND).
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Week 12 CFB Best Bets
• Texas Tech +11.5 (-110) vs. Oklahoma State -11.5 (-110) – Pick: Oklahoma State -11.5
This spread just came out and Oklahoma State at -11.5 is generous at home in my opinion. The Cowboys have one of the highest rated offences in the nation, as they rank 4th in passing yards (348.8 PYPG) and 3rd in points scored (43.9 PPG). Oklahoma State also ranks 22nd at running the football (212.3 RYPG), so I think this Red Raiders defence is going to struggle with the dual attack.
The Red Raiders rank 1st in the nation in passing yards (370 PYPG), 89th in rushing yards (136.7 RYPG) and 18th in point scored with an average of 38.7 PPG. The Texas Tech defence ranks 62nd (27.1 PPG) in points against while the Cowboys rank slightly better by only allowing 26.7 PPG (60th) on average defensively. The Cowboys edge on offence plus being at home will be enough to cover.
• USC -3.5 (-110) vs. UCLA +3.5 (-110) – Pick: UCLA +3.5
USC has been one of the biggest disappointments this year in college football. They were expected to contend for a NC, but that clearly wasn’t in the cards for this Trojans team, which is sitting at 7-3 on the season. UCLA is 8-2 and they’ve won their L4 games against some tough competition. USC recently lost to Arizona 39-36 whereas the Bruins recently smoked Arizona 61-10.
This game should be a shootout and I think the Bruins can upset the Trojans at home. UCLA is going to play their hearts against the Trojans and at worst this game shouldn’t be decided by more than a FG. UCLA has the #23 rushing attack (210.9 RYPG) and if they can get the run going against USC they’ll be able to keep Matt Barkley and the Trojans offence off the field.
• Oklahoma -10.5 (-110) vs. West Virginia +10.5 (-110) – Pick: Oklahoma -10.5
The Sooners this week have a very tough road game against the Mountaineers despite the struggles of WVU recently. I honestly don’t know what happens to WVU this year. They started off 5-0, but have gone 0-4 since with some very bad losses. QB Smith is still getting it done for West Virginia, as WVU has the 5th best passing offence still with an average of 347.6 PYPG.
Despite Smith slinging the football week in and week out, the Mountaineers can’t stop anyone on defence. WVU ranks 121st and they allow an average of 41.4 PPG, which isn’t going to win you many games regardless of how good your offence is. Oklahoma is the 13th highest scoring team in the nation with an average of 39.8 PPG and I expect the Sooners will smoke on the road.
• Wake Forest +24 (-110) vs. Notre Dame -24 (-110) – Pick: Notre Dame -24
Notre Dame is 10-0 and currently ranked 3rd in the nation, but looking just outside of the NC picture. They need to hope that the Ducks or Wildcats lose a game in the next few weeks. Since the Fighting Irish have a shot at making the NC I expect this team to come out on fire these next couple weeks to ensure that they remain undefeated. They just need to beat Wake Forest and USC.
Wake Forest has had a rough season and they were just blown out last week by NC State. Earlier in the year FSU was able to win 52-0 against the Demon Deacons and Notre Dame should have no problem covering the -24 points. The ND offence hasn’t been superb, but the defence ranks #1 in the country by allowing only 11.1 PPG on average so for this year.
• Stanford +21 (-110) vs. Oregon -21 (-110) – Pick: Oregon -21
Oregon is 2nd in the BCS standings right now after week 11 and they should make the NC, but they do have a tough schedule still that they need to navigate through. Oregon ends the season with games against Stanford and Oregon State. Stanford is 4-0 in their L4 games including a nice home win last week against the Beavers (27-23), but the Ducks should roll.
Chip Kelly is going to make sure that his team is focused and ready to play this week. Oregon is dealing with some injuries, but I don’t think that’ll matter this week. When Oregon turns it on like they did in the 4th quarter last week they can beat any team in the country. 21 points is a lot to give up, but Stanford just played a really tough game and now need to play Oregon on the road.
• Kansas State -11.5 (-110) vs. Baylor +11.5 (-110) – Pick: Kansas State -11.5
I would have never guessed that KSU would be the top team in the nation at any point this season a few months ago, but we’re here near the end of the season and the Wildcats just took over the #1 ranking. The Wildcats get it done with QB Klein and this weak Baylor defence is going to have a nightmare trying to stop the dual attack of Klein this weekend.
The Wildcats rank #8 in points scored (42.2 PPG) and #14 in points against (17.7 PPG), so KSU is able to get things done on both sides of the football. Baylor lost to the Sooners this past week 42-34 in a fairly close game. I expect KSU to shutdown the Bears 2nd ranked passing attack (367.7 PYPG) and cover the spread to ensure they remain #1 in the country after this week.