In baseball analysts constantly talk about “Sabermetrics” nowadays. Statistical analysis has become massive in baseball, but the demand to analyze other sports like basketball hasn’t been as high.
I wouldn’t blame you if you’ve never heard of APBRmetrics, as it’s a term that you rarely hear unless you’re into the statistical analysis of basketball. In recent years there has been more interest in the statistical analysis of the NBA and many teams now employ analysts to form statistical conclusions.
Throughout history in the NBA analysts and sports bettors used player/team game statistics to analyze games. The problem with using game statistics is that you don’t get the entire picture of how a team is playing. APBRmetrics have modernized the way we analyze basketball games and it has provided bettors with tons of data to help with wagering. Most APBRmetrics analysts don’t bet on sports, but that doesn’t mean we can’t use their formulas to analyze NBA games and wager on our conclusions.
Most Popular APBRmetrics Statistics
There are a lot of advanced statistics that handicappers can track/use when betting on the NBA. This article is only meant to be an introduction into APBRmetrics and therefore we won’t get into everything. Below is a list of the most commonly used stats that you can use to help predict NBA games at a better rate than you can using traditional statistics. I’m going to post the math formulas to calculate each statistic, but keep in mind there are quite a few APBRmetrics sites that track these statistics.
• Possessions = .96 x (FGA – ORB + TO + (.44 x FTA))
The best basketball statistical analysts have stated that the best way to evaluate the game is on a per possession basis. This stat is very important when evaluating how a team has been playing recently, as you can break everything down to a per possession basis, which is great for analysis purposes. You can also determine offensive/defensive ratings using the possessions statistic.
• Offensive Rating/Efficiency = 100 x Points Scored / Possessions
• Defensive Rating/Efficiency = 100 x Points Allowed / Possessions
These two stats are vital in telling you how teams are performing. The offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency will help you handicap point spreads, moneylines and game totals. You can use these ratings to formulate over/under totals on NBA games and they’ll also assist in formulating point spread picks. Big point spreads are scary to average NBA bettor, but with these ratings you’ll be able to determine whether or not a team “should” cover the point spread or not.
• eFG% = (FGM + .5 x 3FGM) / FGA
This is a very simple stat, but can paint a much clearer picture of how a team or player is shooting. The eFG% accounts for 3-point shots scored by players to give the effective field goal percentage based on the number of points a player scores. 3-pointers are more valuable than 2-pointers and this stat accounts for that fact.
• Turnover Rate = Turnovers / (FGA + 0.44 x FTA + Turnovers)
Turning the ball over in the NBA is costly and the teams that struggle with their turnover rate are often at the bottom of the NBA standings. Turning the ball over leads to quick points for the other team or quick fouls and neither are good. Young teams often turnover the ball much more than veteran teams, so focus on the rebuilding teams with young talent.
• Free Throw Rate = FTM / FGA or FTA / FGA
Free throws win games in the NBA and you’d be surprised how poor some players are at shooting from the line. The top teams are often money from the charity stripe while teams that struggle usually aren’t. To find out the free throw rate you should use the 2nd formula, which uses free throws attempted rather than free throws made although it’s up to you.
Why Should I Use APBRmetrics Statistics?
Most bettors shy away from math because it isn’t enjoyable. If you decide you want to take sports betting seriously these stats are essential to follow when handicapping the NBA. There are enough sites that track these stats plus dozens of other advanced statistics that will help you predict the score of a basketball game. I don’t expect anyone to become an expert on APBRmetrics, but learning the basic stats above is important. You don’t even need to use math since other sites track all of these stats.