Euro 2012 is starting in a few days and one of the Euro 2012 futures markets we wanted to analyze before the tournament starts is the Euro 2012 Golden Boot market. Almost every online bookmaker is offering Euro 2012 Golden Boot odds, but with a bit of research you’ll notice that the prices in this market vary between bookies by quite a bit.
Trying to handicap who will win the golden boot at Euro 2012 is extremely difficult. You have the best football players in Europe coming together to compete on the grand stage and there are a number of players that could win the award. One reason I want to look at the Euro 2012 golden boot odds is because it’s a fun market to have action on during the tournament.
I ended up going with Robin Van Persie and Zlatan Ibrahimovic to win the Euro 2012 golden boot. I’m going to explain why I picked these two players below and I’m also going to make a case for picking several other top contenders. I’ve listed the best odds for each of the top Euro 2012 golden boot contenders at the time of writing (June 4th).
Euro 2012 Golden Boot Contenders
• Robin Van Persie (NED) – Best Odds 11.00 at BetVictor
Robin Van Persie odds have been dropping in the Euro 2012 golden boot market, but BetVictor still has him at 11.0 odds. This was an excellent year for Van Persie, as he won the EPL golden boot with 30 goals for Arsenal. The Netherlands are expected to be a Euro 2012 Champion contender and that means Van Persie should have 5-6 games to score goals.
• Mario Gomez (GER) – Best Odds 10.40 at Pinnacle
Mario Gomez scored 41 goals this year with Bayern Munich with 26 of those coming in the German Bundesliga. Gomez plays on the German squad and they’re expected to go deep in the tourney, but Gomez may not play the entire time. If Klose is ready to play then Gomez will most likely receive limited playing time this month at Euro 2012.
• Christiano Ronaldo (POR) – Best Odds 15.00 at Pinnacle
Ronaldo netted 46 goals for Real Madrid in La Liga play this season. Ronaldo is one of the best players in the world and has an uncanny ability to score goals, but he has failed in the past to score for his country. In the past two Euro Championships he has been held to a total of 3 goals and he obviously wasn’t in golden boot contentions either year.
• Karim Benzema (FRA) – Best Odds 15.00 at BetVictor
Karim Benzema of France could potentially win the Euro 2012 golden boot. Benzema appears like he’ll be starting for France and he should provide a nice scoring touch for the team. Benzema scored 21 goals with Real Madrid in La Liga this season, but most of his goals weren’t against top teams. France should advance though, as they do have a favourable group.
• Fernando Llorente (ESP) – Best Odds 16.00 at Paddy Power
Fernando Llorente should have plenty of opportunities to score goals at Euro 2012. Spain has one of the best attacking midfields and they’ll be providing lots of balls for Llorente. With Athletic Bilbao Llorente was able to score 16 goals during league play and since Spain won’t have Villa I think Llorente will score a few goals.
• Fernando Torres (ESP) – Best Odds 19.00 at BetVictor
Llorente will be fighting for his share of goals with Torres and I think that’s fine. Most of the top teams have two solid strikers that will be fighting for goals. Torres isn’t in the best form this year and I don’t think he’ll suddenly find his form at Euro 2012, so I think your best bet if you like Spain to score a lot is to bet on striker Llorente.
• Klass Jan Huntelaar (NED) – Best Odds 19.00 at Pinnacle
Van Persie and Huntelaar will most likely both score goals during Euro 2012. I’m betting on Van Persie, but there is a case to be made for Huntelaar. Klass scored 29 goals during league play in the Bundesliga, but a lot of his goals were scored against the weaker teams in the league and he may play second fiddle to the more proven Van Persie at Euro 2012.
• Wayne Rooney (ENG) – Best Odds 50.00 at 888Sport
You may be wondering why Wayne Rooney is trading so high before Euro 2012 in the golden boot market. If you haven’t been paying attention the English striker has to sit out the 1st two games with a suspension. Rooney is the best striker on England, but he may only play in 1 game if the English don’t advance, so save your money.
• Robert Lewandowski (POL) – Best Odds 22.00 at Paddy Power
Lewandowski almost made it onto my longshot card and he still might. So far I’ve only bet on two picks to win the golden boot, but I’m still thinking about betting on Lewandowski. The Poland striker will be playing in front of his country and he has had a big season with Dortmund in the Bundesliga (22 Goals). Poland could advance and if they do Lewandowski will need to score.
• Zlatan Ibrahimovic (SWE) – Best Odds 51.00 at BetVictor
My main pick is Van Persie, but I splashed a bit on Ibrahimovic to win the Euro 2012 golden boot as well. I think Sweden will make a surprise appearance in the quarter-finals at Euro 2012 thanks to the foot of Ibrahimovic. The aging striker is running out of time to perform on the big stage and he has struggled in the past. Ibrahimovic scored 28 goals during league play with Inter this year.
Euro 2012 Golden Boot Predictions
Generally you want to bet on a player that you think will make it deep in the tournament. I think Netherlands could make the final and Van Persie has been on fire this year for Arsenal. My longshot pick is Ibrahimovic, but that’s just a gamble. Sweden may not make it that deep, but they have some winnable group stage games if Ibrahimovic can step-up to the plate.
If we look back at the past two European Championships we can see it usually doesn’t take many goals to win the golden boot award. At Euro 2004 Milan Baros won the golden boot with 5 goals for the Czech Republic (Lost in Semis) and at Euro 2008 the golden boot was won by Spain’s (Won Euro 2008) David Villa with 4 goals.
• Robin Van Persie at 11.00 (BetVictor)
• Zlatan Ibrahimovic at 51.00 (BetVictor)