I hope everyone has been enjoying the Euro 2012 action up to this point. We’re now down to the final eight nations and I wanted to take a look at the current Euro 2012 Golden Boot odds. Initially I bet on Van Persie and Ibrahimovic to win the award, but both players’ nations have been eliminated from the tournament and neither player has a chance to win.
How about the Dutch? I can’t believe the team lost their three group stage matches. Sweden actually played well and I’m Zlatan managed to score 1 goal, but that wasn’t nearly enough. If Ibrahimovic could have scored 1 more and the Swedes advanced I’d have a great shot at a huge 51/1 price, but unfortunately that isn’t the case.
Now that there are only eight teams left in the tournament and a maximum of 3 games left players to score it’s going to be a lot easier to analyze the Euro 2012 golden boot market. Before I get into the total number of goals scored at the Euros and the odds for the golden market heading into the quarter-final matches I want to talk about a couple other eliminated players quickly.
Alan Dzagoev (Russia) was trading at over 100/1 before the Euros started to win the golden boot. He scored 3 goals and is in 1st place right now, but Russia lost to Greece and is eliminated now, which means he has no chance. Punters that did bet Dzagoev were able to trade off of him during the group stage at a huge profit though.
A few other players that would have had a chance to win the Euro 2012 golden boot award if their nation had advanced include Mario Mandzukic of Croatia (3 Goals), Nicklas Bendtner of Denmark (2 Goals), Michael Krohn-Dehli of Denmark (2 Goals) and Andriy Shevchenko of Ukraine (2 Goals). Now let’s get to the players that are still in the hunt for the golden boot at Euro 2012.
Updated Euro 2012 Golden Boot Odds & Predictions
Mario Gomez was paying about 10.00 to win the Euro 2012 golden boot at the start of the tournament, but his odds have since dropped down to 2.63 (Best Odds at Boyle Sports). Gomez has 3 goals in the tournament and thankfully for backers of him the other two players that had 3 goals through group stage (Dzagoev & Mandzukic) are out of the tourney.
Germany plays Greece in the QF’s and if they win they would play the winner of England/Italy. The Greece match will most likely be low scoring, but Gomez could still potentially score 1. If Gomez scores against Greece I think his odds will steam because the semis against the winner of England/Italy should be high scoring.
- Cristiano Ronaldo 5.00 Odds (2 Goals)
The best odds on Cristiano Ronaldo to win the Euro 2012 golden boot right now is 5.00 at Bwin. Ronaldo was around 13.00 odds at the start of Euro 2012, so his odds haven’t come down as much as Gomez despite being only 1 goal behind. Ronaldo was able to score 2 goals against the Dutch in Portugal’s final group stage match.
He could have netted 1-2 more goals in that match and with Portugal playing the Czech in the QF’s a trade on Ronaldo to win the golden boot award could prove profitable. If Ronaldo scores against the Czech and Gomez fails to score we’ll be able to trade out of the Ronaldo bet by laying him at Betfair once the odds steam a bit.
- Fernando Torres 7.00 Odds (2 Goals)
Fernando Torres has gone from paying 15.00 odds pre-tournament to 7.00 now that he has 2 goals heading into the QF’s. Spain is expected to at least make the finals at Euro 2012 and that means Torres most likely needs to lead the way. Torres will get the start upfront against Les Bleus and if you think Spain wins Euro 2012 you may want to put a small bet on Torres at 7.00.
- Cesc Fabregas 21.00 Odds (2 Goals)
Cesc Fabregas of Spain is also sitting at 2 goals right now in the tournament. Fabregas was paying roughly 26.00 odds before the tourney started and he’s only down to 21.00 (Will Hill). I personally don’t like Cesc to win the golden boot and if you’re going to bet on a Spaniard at this point to win the Euro 2012 golden boot your best bet is Torres.
The best longshot has to be Wayne Rooney heading into the QF’s. Rooney only played in 1 group stage (2-game suspension), but he scored a goal in his only fixture. England play Italy in the QF’s and the Italians has only conceded 2 goals, but if someone is going to score for the English it will most likely be Rooney.
Czech Republic also has a couple players with 2 goals at the moment. The Czech has been a scary team at Euro 2012 and while I think they lose to Portugal, if they were to advance they’ll score goals. Petr Jiracek (101.00 Odds at Will Hill) and Vaclav Pilar (101.00 Odds at Will Hill) are both paying a ton and both players have 2 goals apiece. Two other longshots that some punters are backing are Mario Balotelli (67.00 Odds at Will Hill) and Samir Nasri (101.00 Odds at Will Hill) although I didn’t bet either.
Euro 2012 Golden Boot Best Bets
I think the best bet is to trade the Ronaldo odds. You can back Ronaldo at the best odds before the Czech match and if he’s able to score against the Czech the odds should steam, especially if Gomez doesn’t score. Ronaldo seems to have found a new gear in his last match and at 5.00 (Bwin) he’s worth a shout.