Well it’s round 6 already and it’s hard to believe we’re a quarter of the way through the season already.
Given, this is my first tips post in our AFL section. I thought I would outline the format I will follow throughout the season each week. I will be doing a short preview of the betting on most games and provide what I see as the value bet if there is one for that game.
Collingwood v Bulldogs
The round kicks off on Friday night with the Magpies taking on the Bulldogs. People seem to have written Collingwood off as a top few team, but they seem to forget that teams that go deep into the finals, start their preseason much later than all the other teams, and by extension, take a few weeks to get into the season and display some decent form.
Collingwood is just starting to hit its straps after a few early season injuries and played their best game of the year so far in the Anzac Day clash, beating in-form Essendon by the slimest of margins. They have had 10 days off to freshen up and have both Reid and Shaw coming back into the side.
The bullies however, have been woeful this season in their forward 50 and rank in the bottom four for all the key scoring and forward stats . They actually rank last in the league for goal conversion to forward entries, goaling only 20% of the time they go in.
Whilst the head to head odds have the Magpies at a slender $1.11 to win, both the half time/fulltime odds and the odds for Collingwood to be leading at each break look to be the value in this game. Collingwood to be leading at HT/FT is paying around the $1.30 mark and for them to be leading at the end of each quarter you will get a reasonably attractive $1.55 return on this bet.
Value bet : Collingwood HT/FT @ $1.30
Essendon vs Brisbane
Essendon have had a great start to the season this year, with their new coaching staff having its second pre-season with the team and have shown they are on the up with a close loss against one of the last seasons benchmarks last year in Collingwood last round.
They have had 10 days off as well whereas the Lions are coming off a tough slog in the wet last week against Geelong, where they put up a bit of a fight early, but were over ran and pretty much smashed in the end by Geelong.
With that in mind I’m tipping Essendon will jump out of the blocks and be leading at each change.
Value bet : Essendon to lead at each break @ $1.75 (best bet)
Geelong vs Melbourne
Pretty uninteresting betting game this one. Geelong are a prohibitive $1.05 to win down at their home ground, and should take care of the Demons fairly comfortably. Melbourne had a pretty good game against St Kilda last week, but the Saints are no Geelong, and the home ground advantage with the wind down there this year should see Geelong comfortable winners. I don’t see much value in the betting markets in this game, but if you were adament about placing a bet in this game, Geelong over 40 @ $1.45 looks to be the best of it, unless you want to be a bit braver and take them at the 55 point start. I’m not.
Value bet : None, Geelong over 40 @ $1.45 if you have to
Gold Coast Fremantle
Gold Coast have a habit of jumping out of the blocks every now an then, and even with Ablett out, it wouldn’t surprise if Freo started a bit sluggishly after the trip from the West. Still, I can’t see Gold Coast matching it with Freo for long, and I suggest taking Freo to win at the slender $1.14. I’m not a fan of betting the line or qtr to qtr with both the Gold Coast nor GWS, as they both can string together a decent quarter or two and think its dicing with trouble trying to pick the trend of the games when these two are involved.
Value Bet : Freo to win @ $1.14 for the multi’s
Sydney vs Adelaide
Sydney are on fire early in the season , and rank particularly high in forward stats and scoring this season, which is against their trend of the past few years. They play selfless football and last week came back from over 4 goals down and looking much inferior to Hawthorn in the first half, to completely smash them in Tassie in the second half, to remain undefeated for the season.
Adelaide on the other hand, have had an up and down start to this season, and didn’t look too impressive in the SA derby last week, only just overcoming Port, who were unlucky to lose.
In past years, the stats have not been kind to Sydney at the line, as they’ve tended to keep most games within a tight range, and statistically rarely have beaten the line when favourite (they’ve been good at beating it as the underdog) and whilst they’ve started this season off a much higher scoring team in the past, I’m still not confident enough to take them at the line as favourite.
These two are 1 and 2 for contested ball so far this season, so look for a bit of a bit of an arm wrestle early, before the Swans open the game up a bit and remain undefeated this season.
Value bet : Swanies to win $1.30
That covers the first half of the round, I will update this post on Saturday and cover off the balance.