I thought I would jot down a few thoughts on the upcoming Round 19 of the AFL season, now that H2H markets are out.
It’s Monday as I write and only the head to head markets are up at the sportsbooks. Lines won’t be up until Wednesday or Thursday morning for the line-betting and other prop markets, but there are a few interesting odds already posted in the H2H markets given an indication as to where they may set the handicap.
Two games stand out to me when looking at the odds, the Fremantle v West Coast game and the Adelaide v Essendon game.
Freo are currently $2.60 at most books against West Coast who are $1.50 favourites. Freo are clearly over the odds here and I anticipate them shortening a bit before the week is through. Things are tight in the fight for the last few spots in the 8 as we head towards finals and Fremantle will look at this game as probably the crunch game of their season.
The western derby is generally a rugged, tightly played contest and with West Coast still recovering from an injury plagued month and Freo in pretty reasonable form, albeit fading miserably in the second half against Port after a sensational first half and I look forward to see where the sportsbook place the line in this game.
With Fyfe dominating against Port after a long break with his shoulder injury and Barlow close to best on last week, it won’t be the walk in the park the sportsbooks are suggesting with their early market.
So as soon as the line goes up, I’ll be looking to take an interest in Freo at the line, particularly above 4 goals, which is where its likely to be set given the H2H prices currently available.
The other game that stands out to me is the Adelaide v Essendon game at AAMi Stadium. Whilst Adelaide looked tired against Geelong at the Cattery, they did have a chance to snatch the game when they got ahead in the last quarter, only to fade in the last 15 minutes and allow Geelong to run over the top of them.
Adelaide look tired after a bright start to the season, and although they have a favourable run to the finals and are fighting for a top 4, possibly top 2 position, I think they are way unders at $1.15 against Essendon who are currently a whopping $5.90 to win this game.
Hurley will be back this week and along side Gumbleton, the two will prove tough to match up on in Adelaide. Essendon have won all 4 of their interstate trips so far this season and the $5.90 the sportsbooks are offering on them to beat Adelaide, to me at least, seems way overs.
I still think the Crows will win the game, but I don’t think it will be the blowout that is expected and if the books post a line around 28 or above, I’ll be on Essendon with the points headstart.
The head to head odds on the rest of the games look about right, with Collingwood probably a bit short at $1.38 against a pretty decent Saints outfit ($3.05) and Carlton are probably a bit long at home ($2.95) against ladder leaders Sydney ($1.40) who just keep winning, despite not setting the house on fire.
I’ll write an update later in the week when the line and other prop markets come out and the likely in’s and outs are known, but for now it seems to me Freo and the Bombers at the line look like being the best value for the moment.