This weeks AFL sees a few interesting match ups, but as is the case most weeks, there seems better value looking outside just the straight head to head betting and to some of the other prop betting markets available such as the line betting odds and half time full time markets.
I won’t go through every game at this stage, just the ones that interests me before the round starts, but may add some of the games not covered as the weekend progresses. Here’s my initial assessment of this weeks better AFL betting opportunities.
Geelong v Essendon
Its getting to crunch time now for the Cats and I don’t think they will get any respite this week as they take on the Bombers on Friday night at Etihad.
Essendon are warm favourites currently at 1.83 with the Cats even money at 2.0 head to head , with the line sitting at -/+ 2 points.
Some key outs for Geelong this week and up against a very solid Bombers midfield I suspect they won’t be able to keep up with Essendons pace, particularly early in the game.
For this reason, I’m taking the Dons in the half time/full time markets, which is paying $2.35 at Luxbet at the moment and in my eyes close to the bet of the round.
Essendon play Etihad stadium extremely well having won 13 of their past 16 outings there and I expect them to give the Cats a bit of a touch up this week and will be on them to comfortably beat the line as well.
Essendon Half-time/Full-time @ $2.35
Collingwood v Hawthorn
The match of the round and a clash many say between the two teams most likely to get through to the last game of the year in 2012.
This is probably a more important game for Collingwood to win, as if they can’t beat Hawthorn now who are likely to be without Buddy Franklin and captain Hodge, they will struggle to later in the year comes finals time.
Unfortunately for the Pies I think the bookies have this right now that Hawthorn have been crunched in from $1.85 to $1.70 odd favourite to Collingwood’s $2.00 out to $2.14. Interestingly, Hawthorn have beaten the line in their past 10 games (9w1L) whereas the pies have only succeeded in beating expected line once in the past 7 weeks.
I’m not keen on betting in this game as you can never under estimate either of these two teams if they are tuned in from the start and I think its a good game to just look on and enjoy.
Suggested Bet : NIL
Western Bulldogs v Carlton
I like the line in this game, backing Carlton to cover the 13 point start the bookies have set.
The Bulldogs have been inconsistent this year and Carlton just have to win these types of games comfortably to not only remain in touch for the eight, but to endeavour to bolster its percentage ahead of what looms as a bottleneck for those last couple of finals spots that are up for grabs.
Yes, they are without Judd who has been in some great form the past few games, but with Murphy now with a game under his belt and Carazzo getting into gear after a long lay off also, Carlton will be able to cover Judd’s absence in the midfield this week.
Last week they were also forced to use Henderson, their key forward down back to cover a rampaging Petrie. The dogs don’t have anything remotely resembling a threatening forward, so even though Henderson is out this week Carlton will be allowed to keep their preferred structure and stroll to a comfortable win here.
Carlton -13 points @ $1.92
So my best AFL multi-bet of the week is Essendon HT/FT into Carlton at -13 paying $4.51.
The only other game that interests me from a betting perspective is the Gold Coast v Brisbane game, where I’m considering backing the Lions at the line (currently set at -24.5) but want to wait to see the teams come out and the conditions the game will be played in before making a final call on that game.